Signal Strategy · Secondary Variant
Leverage Ladder
A graduated-band variant of Leverage Rotation. Instead of flipping between 3x TQQQ and cash in one move at the 200-day SMA, it steps leverage down through a transitional zone.
Honest status: in backtesting this did not beat the binary Leverage Rotation filter on return or drawdown, and it doesn't trade less either: the graduated bands re-check every day with no confirm-days debounce, so it actually switches far more than the binary filter (roughly 10 to 18x more often in backtesting). It's tracked here with a live paper record so the forward result, not the backtest, decides whether it earns more prominence. Not featured above the flagship; it stays a paper-tracked strategy for now.
Not investment advice. This page shows the rule's transparent logic and a live paper track record accruing since inception, not a proven or guaranteed return. Trading leveraged ETFs involves substantial risk of loss.
Above +4%
100% TQQQ
3x: more than 4% above the SPY 200-day SMA
-3% to +4%
100% QLD
2x: gray zone around the SMA (SSO for a lower-volatility variant)
Below -3%
100% Cash
Never 2x below the line: the single worst rule tested was staying leveraged in a downtrend
Constraints (learned the hard way)
- Below the line is always cash: never a 2x position. A 2x-below-the-line version was destroyed in bear tests.
- No QVAL rotation and no "froth" deleverage rule above the bands: both tested as drags.
- No hysteresis or multi-day confirmation: every tick recomputes the target band directly from SPY's current distance from its 200-day SMA.
Live Paper Record
A $100k paper account has been tracking this rule live since 2026-07-03, marked to market daily, append-only, no re-simulation. Warming up: day 15 / 30. Numbers publish once the record has enough elapsed time to be meaningful.