Storm Shield Rotation
Three independent sleeves, TQQQ, UPRO, and USD, each built on the same core: the real Leverage Rotation trend filter (SPY 200-day exit / 150-day re-entry SMA) as the floor, intermediate Treasuries (VGIT) instead of cash as the risk-off leg, and a bear-confirmed re-entry delay that only kicks in during a genuine, deep drawdown. The TQQQ sleeve alone adds a QQQ realized-volatility circuit breaker on top.
Not investment advice. This page shows the rule's transparent logic, an honest backtest, and each sleeve's live paper track record accruing since inception, not a proven or guaranteed return. Trading leveraged ETFs involves substantial risk of loss.
Honest validation status, stated plainly: the TQQQ sleeve is validated end-to-end (core layer plus the vol circuit breaker): no lookahead, robust across a 65th-90th percentile threshold sweep, positive episode attribution including out-of-sample, and cost-resilient. The UPRO and USD sleeves have only the core layer validated (state machine + Treasuries + bear-confirmed re-entry, tested cross-asset). The vol circuit breaker was tested against UPRO and USD specifically and found not to generalize: that is exactly why it is restricted to TQQQ only, not silently omitted. Backtest results are not a forward guarantee; the live record above is shown as it accrues.
Instant, unless QQQ is 15%+ below its own rolling high; then requires 5 consecutive eligible days before re-entering.
Forces the park leg whenever QQQ's 20-day realized volatility is at or above the 78.6th percentile of its own expanding, in-sample-only history.
Instant, unless SPY is 15%+ below its own rolling high; then requires 5 consecutive eligible days before re-entering.
Instant, unless SMH is 15%+ below its own rolling high; then requires 5 consecutive eligible days before re-entering.
Tracing the dot-com-era backtest showed exits were already fast: the damage came from re-entries into the leveraged ticker during bear-market-rally head-fakes, each crushed within weeks by the next leg down. Delaying every re-entry by a flat number of days fixed that but cost real return during ordinary, fast-recovering corrections (2020, 2022). Gating the delay on whether the reference instrument is genuinely deep below its own high, not just any correction, keeps re-entry instant for ordinary dips and only slows it down during a real, sustained bear market.