Leverage Rotation

A binary trend filter for the Roth: leveraged ETFs when the market is in a confirmed uptrend, cash-equivalents when SPY breaks its 200-day SMA. It trades frequently, so every switch is tax-free. It's also reused by Fortress Core , a taxable-account allocation methodology whose TQQQ sleeve runs this same filter on a slice.

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Not investment advice. This page shows the rule's transparent logic and a live paper track record accruing since inception, not a proven or guaranteed return. Trading leveraged ETFs involves substantial risk of loss. run the honest backtest of this exact rule.

Roth IRA

Leverage Rotation

Ride the trend, sidestep the crash.

A trend-following risk filter. Holds a concentrated set of leveraged ETFs in an uptrend, rotating to BIL when SPY breaks its 200-day SMA, and re-entering on a confirmed recovery. Binary: fully invested or fully in cash-equivalents. Exact trigger rules and current regime state are below.

Protected Set (Risk-On)

USDTQQQUPROQLD

Risk-Off Park

BIL: T-bill ETF, self-identifying as parked capital

Trades frequently: tax-free inside the Roth.

Leverage Rotation: Trend Filter States

Confirmed In

Holding full protected set. Stop: 3% below 200d.

SPY > 200d SMA + 3% buffer

Early In

Re-entered early on a genuine bounce. Tighter stop: 3% below 150d.

SPY reclaimed 150d after dipping below

Out

All protected set in BIL. Watching for genuine 150d or 200d reclaim.

SPY < 200d SMA − 3% buffer

All transitions require 3 consecutive daily checks before firing (except the 150d latch, which sets immediately).

Supporting Signal

Same Idea, Broader Index Set

Plain SMA regime (no VIX, no Volatility Symphony): hold the 3× bull ETF above the SMA, cash below.

MA:

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